[The following comments by Bill Huston are extracted from an email thread, with his permission.]

Q1: What is the STATED reason for the Constitution Pipeline?
A1: Lack of take-away capacity in NE PA.

Whoops! #1 According to David Hughes, the field declines so rapidly, they have to keep drilling MANY wells just to keep production flat.

Audio Podcast 1: http://mp3.e-bim.com/mp3/oilandgas/DrillbabydrillRV.mp3
Audio Podcast 2: http://podcast.cbc.ca/mp3/podcasts/shiftnb_20130221_78595.mp3
The Paper: http://www.postcarbon.org/reports/DBD-report-FINAL.pdf
Chip Northrup commentary: http://blog.shaleshockmedia.org/2013/07/30/shale-bridge-collapse/

Whoops #1a Even worse, since they drill the “sweet spot” first, newer wells don’t perform as well, so they must ACCELERATE drilling the field just to keep production flat.

Q2: What is the REAL reason we all suspect?
A2: To facilitate fracking in NY.

Whoops #2: According to Jerry Action, there’s no gas in NY.

So, why do we need this pipeline again?

The only way to calibrate Jerry’s model to NY would be to drill a bunch of wells in NY and see. Rather than criticizing Jerry’s predictions as “mere speculation,” I hope that Jerry’s model/predictions remain FOREVER speculative!

I’ve talked to several folks about the Utica Shale including Brian Brock, and he says it’s worse than the Marcellus in NY. It’s over-mature. Which means no shale oil (young formation), no shale gas (mature), only CO2 and water (over mature). This is apparently based on test wells that have been drilled.

As far as the cost-benefit equation about when it becomes “profitable” to recover shale gas:

It’s more than just the “money” cost.
It’s also the Energy cost.

This is expressed as EROEI (net Energy Returned on Energy Invested).

If your EROEI is 1:100, there is a big party in Texas. But those days are LONG GONE. These days, drillers are lucky to get 1:10.

If it takes 10 units of energy to recover 2 units, then it is not even an energy source, it’s an energy sink (a loss).

David Hughes has said “the question is still out” about the EROEI of shale gas, but it is approaching 1:1,  which is the “Ultimate Barrier” in the Resource Pyramid below: